Betting Bulletin: Tuesday 20th November 2017
THREE STRONG STATS FAUGHEEN HAS TO OVERCOME TO WIN THE CHAMPION HURDLE
Faugheen made a brilliant return to action in the Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown on Sunday.
Bookmakers were quick to slash his pirce for the Champion Hurdle into a best-priced 9-4. It is probably an overreaction given the poor nature of the Morgiana with a couple of slow horses in behind and Faugheen getting his own way up in front. His current price is based on that brillaint Champion Hurdle win back in 2015. What’s clear is that if he can return to that form then he must take some beating but Buveur Dair is now a hell of a price. Given Faugheen’s record with injury you’d have to be a bold punter to take that 9-4.
What is for sure is that if Faugheen is to win the Champion Hurdle that he’ll have to overcome so quite strong stats to do so. They are:
- 8 of the last 11 winners were either 6yo or 7yo
- 9 of the last 11 winners ran at the previous Cheltenham Festival
- 7 of the last 11 winners ran at the previous Punchestow Festival
Now obviously there’s horse that didn’t fit one of those three race trends but to not fit any of the three could be significant.
ANALYSIS: 1.00 SOUTHWELL
Stowaway Magic is favourite at 13-8 best price but on all known hurdle form and his OR over hurdles he has a few pounds to find with both FOUNTAINS WINDFALL and FORTH BRIDGE who are both as equally lightly-raced as the favourite.
FORTH BIDGE was disappointing on his chase debut but his stable are in far better form than they were then. That said that run was against a very decent rival over possibly an inadequate test. This step up in trip should suit on this ground and Southwell is quite a sharp track so his natural 2m speed should come in handy. He’s getting plenty of weight from his rivals and on hurdle ratings he’s effectively 1lb clear of the rest.
FOUNTAINS WINDFALL ran a bit disappointing on his seasonal debut over hurdles on soft ground over 3m. Lack of fitness and soft ground over that trip eventually told and the worry with this fella is that 2m4f around a sharp Southwell on good ground may not be a stiff enough of a test for a horse that has won over 3m and ran well on heavy ground.
So what is the play? Well given how well-in he is on hurdle ratings and that this trip on this ground will suit you’ve got to think there’s trading room in FORTH BIDGE‘s 11-1 best price. He races up with or near the pace and with a touch of class and natural speed he must trade shorter in-running. How shorter is the question but if you take the 11-1 now I’d be confident he can trade shorter than 7.0 in-running.
Back Forth Bridge 1.00 Southwell @ 12.0 William Hill and Lay at 7.0 or lower in-running
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ANALYSIS: 2.20 FAKENHAM
The market has this between RED HANRAHAN and HOLBROOK PARK at 4-5 and 11-8 best prices respectively. To be honest I was expecting RED HANRAHAN to be much shorter. Even if you think Holbrook Park has a chance he still has 8lb to find on hurdle ratings on this his chase debut, whilst also giving away a fitness advantage and coming from a stable that isn’t firing on all cylinders against a horse from a stable bang in form. Throw in the fact that RED HANRAHAN has now got some really good experience to his name then you have to think he must take some beating.
Back Red Hanrahan 2.20 Fakenham @ 4-5 Ladbrokes and Coral bog
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